Polymarket lets you bet on outcomes. Kalshi lets you bet on outcomes. They're infrastructure. Good infrastructure. But they're neutral — they don't have an opinion on what's going to happen next. You show up, pick a side, and wait.
BV-7X is different. It publishes a directional call on Bitcoin every day at 5pm ET. Four signals — trend, momentum, flow, value — synthesized into a single thesis with a confidence level. Then it opens a market around that thesis. You can ride with the oracle. You can fade it. Either way, the oracle's track record is public, timestamped, and immutable.
That's the core of what we're building: the first AI-native prediction market where the signal source and the market are the same product.
The Problem with Neutral Markets
On Polymarket, a Bitcoin directional market shows you a number: 58% chance of going up. Where did that number come from? Aggregate sentiment. Whale bets. Vibes. There's no thesis backing it — just a price discovered by the crowd.
Crowds are sometimes wise. They're also sometimes wrong in coordinated, spectacular ways. The 2024 election markets showed that prediction market odds can swing 30 points in hours based on momentum alone. When everyone is following the same signal — the market itself — you get feedback loops, not price discovery.
An oracle market adds a reference point. BV-7X says UP with 67% confidence. The market might disagree — pricing UP at 52%. That gap between oracle and market is itself information. It tells you how much the crowd trusts the signal. It creates a richer trading surface than a bare probability.
How It Works
Every day at 5pm ET, BV-7X publishes its signal. BUY, SELL, or HOLD, with a confidence level derived from four independent macro indicators. That signal gets committed on-chain — no edits, no deletes, no retroactive adjustments.
A prediction market opens around the signal. Two outcome tokens: UP and DOWN. Each priced between $0.00 and $1.00 USDC. The price reflects implied probability — UP at $0.62 means the market thinks there's a 62% chance Bitcoin closes higher after the resolution window.
Winning tokens pay $1.00. Losing tokens pay $0.00. And unlike a fixed bet, these tokens are freely tradeable throughout the resolution window. You can enter, exit, or flip your position at any time as conditions change.
Why Tradeable Shares Matter
A fixed bet captures one transaction per user per market. Tradeable shares capture dozens as users react to BTC price movement, shifting sentiment, breaking news, and changes in oracle accuracy. More transactions means more fees. More fees means more protocol revenue. More revenue means a stronger flywheel.
The oracle doesn't just tell you what it thinks. It opens a market so you can trade on it. Every trade feeds the protocol.
The Oracle as Product
On a neutral prediction market, the oracle is invisible. A Chainlink price feed resolves the market and nobody thinks about it. The oracle is plumbing.
On BV-7X, the oracle is the product. Its signal is displayed prominently: what it called, at what confidence, based on which indicators. Its accuracy is tracked publicly — rolling 7-day, 30-day, and all-time. Every past market shows what the oracle said versus what actually happened.
This creates two natural trading modes that no other market offers:
- Ride with the Oracle — one click to buy shares aligned with BV-7X's call. You believe the model sees something the crowd doesn't.
- Fade the Oracle — one click to take the opposite side. You think the model is wrong this time, and you want to profit from it.
Both modes are legitimate. Both generate fees. And both positions are informed by something concrete — a transparent, scored thesis — rather than gut feeling alone.
The Revenue Flywheel
Every trade in the oracle market generates a small fee. Those fees flow back to the protocol:
→ 40% Staker rewards (WETH)
→ 40% $BV7X buyback & burn
→ 20% Protocol treasury
The buyback-and-burn is mechanical. Trading fees accumulate in the protocol treasury. Periodically, those fees purchase $BV7X on the open market and send it to a burn address. Supply decreases. Each remaining token represents a larger share of future protocol revenue.
Stakers earn WETH directly — real yield from real trading activity, not token emissions. The protocol treasury funds development, oracle infrastructure, and liquidity seeding for new markets.
The result is a closed loop:
↓
More traders trust the signal
↓
More volume in the prediction market
↓
More fees generated
↓
More buyback-and-burn + staker rewards
↓
Higher $BV7X demand, deeper liquidity
↓
Even more volume → loop
On-Chain Architecture
Everything runs on Base. Five contracts handle the full lifecycle:
- MarketFactory — creates new markets when the oracle publishes a signal. Sets resolution timestamp and records the opening BTC price via Chainlink.
- PredictionMarket — holds the AMM logic for each market. Handles share minting, trading, redemption, and fee collection.
- OracleRegistry — records BV-7X's signal on-chain. Direction, confidence, timestamp. Immutable once committed.
- FeeDistributor — receives accumulated fees from all markets and distributes them to stakers, the buyback contract, and treasury.
- Staking — accepts $BV7X deposits, tracks pro-rata fee rewards, and optionally supports LP staking for users who also provide USDC liquidity.
Resolution is straightforward: Chainlink records BTC price at market open and market close. If the close is higher, UP tokens pay $1. If lower, DOWN tokens pay $1. Fees are distributed. A new market opens automatically.
What Makes This Different
| Feature | Polymarket | Kalshi | BV-7X |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC directional markets | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Native AI oracle signal | — | — | ✓ |
| Oracle accuracy scoring | — | — | ✓ |
| Token-backed revenue model | — | — | ✓ |
| Staking rewards from fees | — | — | ✓ |
| Buyback-and-burn | — | — | ✓ |
| Ride / Fade oracle UX | — | — | ✓ |
Anyone can launch a prediction market. The infrastructure is commoditized. What's not commoditized is a transparent, scored AI oracle that publishes a thesis before the market opens and lets its track record speak for itself. The oracle's accuracy IS the brand.
The Rollout
Phase 1 is live in testnet now: the oracle signal, the scorecard, and a basic prediction interface. BV-7X already publishes daily signals at 5pm ET with a 7-day resolution window. Every signal is tracked and scored publicly.
Phase 2 brings the on-chain prediction market: AMM-based liquidity on Base, tradeable UP/DOWN shares, and fee distribution to stakers. The oracle signal gets committed on-chain before each market opens.
Phase 3 expands the market surface: daily markets, price range markets, and potentially multi-asset coverage as the oracle proves itself across different conditions.
Phase 4 adds an order book for tighter spreads, a public API for bots and market makers, and cross-market portfolio views. At this stage, the protocol becomes composable infrastructure that other applications can build on.
The Edge
Most prediction markets are asking the same question: what does the crowd think? BV-7X asks a different question: what does the oracle think, and does the crowd agree?
That second question is more interesting. It creates a richer information surface, more diverse trading strategies, and a natural narrative around every market. It gives traders a reference point that isn't just the market's own price. And it ties the whole system together with a token that captures real revenue from real trading activity.
The oracle has skin in the game. Its accuracy is public. Its signals are immutable. If it's wrong, everyone sees it. If it's right, the flywheel spins faster.
Signal. Market. Revenue. Token value. Deeper liquidity. Repeat.
That's the oracle market.
See the Oracle in Action
Daily signals at 5pm ET. Public scorecard. Testnet prediction market live now.
Try the Testnet