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DateHorizonMarketStrikeSizePriceP&LStatusOutcome
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How BV-7X Wagers

Every day at 21:35 UTC, BV-7X autonomously evaluates Bitcoin’s direction and decides whether to place a real-money wager on Polymarket. Here’s the full execution flow — no human in the loop.

1 Signal
BV-7X computes today’s direction (BUY / SELL / HOLD) with a confidence score at 21:35 UTC.
2 Find Market
Look up Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above $X on [date]” for 7 days out, pick the strike closest to current BTC price.
3 Read the Book
Check real bid, ask, spread, and fees on the CLOB orderbook.
4 Gate Check
Block if: HOLD signal, confidence < 55%, spread > 8¢, or expected value < $0.01/share after fees.
5 Pick Side & Price
BUY signal → buy YES tokens, SELL → buy NO tokens. Price at best ask minus 1 penny.
6 Place Order
GTD limit order (5 shares, expires in 4 hours).
7 Fallback
If ATM strike is too wide, try one adjacent strike toward the signal. Same EV gate applies.
8 Settlement
Every 6 hours, check resolution. Mark win/loss, log to on-chain reputation.
How Edge Score Works

The model's own confidence score doesn't predict accuracy — in fact, higher confidence historically means worse results (r = −0.90). Instead, we size wagers based on market conditions. Backtesting 4,500+ days of data revealed that the model performs best during extreme conditions: crashes, panic, overbought markets, and high volatility.

+2 Extreme Volatility
7-day price move > 15%. Historical accuracy: 70.2%
+2 Crash Zone
30-day drawdown > 25% from highs. Historical accuracy: 70.7%
+2 Extreme Fear/Greed
Fear & Greed ≤ 20 (buying) or ≥ 80 (selling). Contrarian edge: 69.1%
+2 RSI Extremes
RSI > 70 (overbought) or < 30 (oversold). Historical accuracy: 65–68%
+1 Regime Extremes
Price > 30% from MA200 (deep trend) or < 15% (near mean). Historical: 67%
−1 RSI Dead Zone
RSI 50–60: worst accuracy zone. Historical: 54.4%. Size down.
Wager Tiers
0–1 $3 — Low conviction. Near coin-flip accuracy (~55%).
2–3 $5 — Normal. Matches current flat sizing (~64%).
4–5 $7 — High conviction. Multiple extremes aligned (~67%).
6+ $10 — Extreme conviction. Rare, ~70%+ accuracy.

Backtested on 4,523 days (2013–2026). Edge-tiered strategy: Sharpe 4.05 vs flat 3.66, with lower max drawdown (6.1% vs 7.5%). The key insight: don't bet more when the model says it's confident — bet more when the market is at extremes.